【作者】 张琪；

【导师】 刘文；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学， 金融（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 中国—东盟自贸区是中国与东盟双边关系史上的具有重大意义的经贸安排,也是目前全球覆盖人口最多的自贸区和发展中国家之间最大的自贸区。2018年中国和东盟建立战略伙伴关系15周年,双方已形成了全方位、多层次、宽领域的合作格局。2010年中国—东盟自贸区全面建成,2015年双方签署中国—东盟自贸区升级议定书。自贸区建立后,中国与东盟间的经贸合作得以加速发展,同时中国—东盟双向投资也在不断发展,2016年中国对东盟投资额为2003年的86.1倍,2015年数据更是2003年的122.4倍。根据相关研究,FTA的建立会对一国的对外投资产生影响,但其是否发挥主要作用及其对产业结构的影响因不同类型的FTA作用效果不同。通过研究FTA背景下中国对东盟投资影响效应,能够发现我国FTA背景下的投资作用大小及存在问题,针对问题提出针对性建议,从而更好的发挥FTA背景下的投资效应,为中国企业对外投资决策提供指导,同时为中国-东盟自贸区(“10+1”)升级版的工作推进及还在谈判中的RCEP提供实证及理论支持。本文从六个方面展开研究。第一部分为国内外研究综述,从区域经济一体化、跨国公司投资动机、区内投资效应和区外投资效应、不同类别区域一体化组织投资效应以及投资与贸易的关系等角度对相关文献进行梳理。第二部分则对中国总体对外投资及中国对东盟投资的特点进行比较,分析中国对外投资的发展状况。第三部分为FTA背景下中国对外投资机理分析。第四、五部分为实证研究,其中第四部分通过合成控制法和双重差分法研究FTA背景下中国对东盟直接投资的影响,结果表明,FTA对中国对东盟投资产生了促进作用,但影响效果远不及基础设施建设水平、制度因素以及市场规模;第五部分利用灰色关联分析法研究中国对外投资结构的变化与产业结构升级,结果表明,FTA更有效的促进了对东盟第二、三产业的投资,且劳动密集型行业和战略资源寻求型行业的对外投资对我国产业结构优化升级发挥作用更大。最后一部分提出研究结论,为提升中国-东盟自贸区投资效应,政府层面,应保持与东盟进一步友好合作的关系,实现更加深入、自由化和便利化的投资合作;建立东盟投资信息库,实行有差别的经济政策;继续鼓励企业实施“走出去”战略;完善中国企业国际直接投资的监管,建立完善的对外投资法律体系;加强投资平台建设,鼓励并引导行业龙头企业赴境外建设合作区。企业层面,应加快现代企业制度的建立和创新能力,全面提升我国企业在东亚市场上的竞争力;慎重选择投资国家和投资行业。为促进中国-东盟“10+1”升级版的发展,应以投资为主线建设“升级版”,推进与东盟的全方位合作;借力“一带一路”,突破自贸区升级的瓶颈;主动塑造中国一东盟双边关系;打造好中国与东盟命运共同体的“旗舰”工程。为推进区域全面经济伙伴关系协定谈判,应加强各国在金融领域的合作;建立投资协调机构、投资合作机制和投资服务平台;增强政治互信,参与规则制定。更多还原

【Abstract】 China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is a significant economic and trade arrangement in the history of bilateral relations between China and ASEAN.It is also the largest FTA and the largest FTA with the world’s largest population.2018 is the 15th anniversary of the strategic partnership between China and ASEAN.They have formed a comprehensive,multi-level and wide field of cooperation.In 2010,CAFTA was completed.In 2015,they signed the escalation protocol of the CAFTA.After the establishment of the FTA,the economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN has been speeded up.Meanwhile,two-way investment between them is also developing.In 2016,Chinese investment in ASEAN was 86.1 times that of 2003,and the 2015 data is 122.4 times that of 2003.According to related research,the establishment of FTA will have an impact on a country’s foreign investment,but whether it plays a major role and its impact on industrial structure is different with different types of FTA.It can find the size and the problems of the investment role under the background of FTA in China through the study of the impact of Chinese investment on ASEAN under the background of FTA.Put forward some suggestions on the problem,so as to give full play to the investment effect under the background of FTA.And it provides guidance for Chinese enterprises to invest in foreign investment,and provides empirical and theoretical support for the promotion of CAFTA("10+1”)and the RCEP in negotiation.This paper studies with six aspects.The first part is a review of research at home and abroad.I have combed the related literature from the angle of the regional economic integration,the investment motivation of transnational corporations,the internal investment effect and external investment effect,the investment effect of different types of regional integration organizations and the relationship between investment and trade.The second part compares the characteristics of China’s overall foreign investment and China’s investment in ASEAN to analyze the development of China’s foreign investment.The third part is the analysis of Chinese foreign investment mechanism under the background of FTA.The fourth,fifth part is an empirical study.In the fourth part,I use the synthetic control and dual difference method study on the impact of Chinese direct investment on ASEAN under the FTA background.The results show that FTA has contributed to China’s investment in ASEAN.But the effect is far less than the level of infrastructure construction,institutional factors and market scale.The fifth part is to study the change of China’s foreign investment structure and the upgrading of the industrial structure by using the grey relational analysis method.The results show that FTA is more effective in promoting the investment of the second,third industry to ASEAN.And the foreign investment of labor intensive industry and strategic resource seeking industry plays a greater role in the optimization and upgrading of China’s industrial structure.The last part puts forward the conclusion of the research.In order to improve the investment effect of CAFTA,the government should maintain a further friendly and cooperative relationship with ASEAN and achieve more in-depth,liberalized and facilitated investment cooperation.Establish ASEAN Investment Information Base,implement differentiated economic policies,and continue to encourage enterprises to implement the strategy of "going global".Improve the supervision of Chinese enterprises’international direct investment and establish a perfect legal system for them.The government should strengthen investment platform constction,encourage and guide the leading enterprises in the industry to build cooperative zones outside China.Enterprises should speed up the establishment and innovation ability of the modern enterprise system,and comprehensively enhance the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the East Asian market.Choose the investment countries and investment industries carefully.In order to promote the negotiation with the China ASEAN"10+1" upgrade,we should build an "upgraded version" with investment as the main line,and promote the all-round cooperation with ASEAN.Leveraging "One Belt,OneRoad" break through the bottleneck of FTA upgrade.The enterprises also should shape the bilateral relations between China and ASEAN actively and build a flagship project for the destiny of China and ASEAN.To promote negotiations on RCEP,China andASEAN should strengthen their cooperation in the financial field.They should also establish investment coordination institutions,investment cooperation mechanisms and investment service platforms.Finally we should strengthen political mutual trust and participate in rules making.更多还原